NFP

Leading indicators point to a below expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 125K-175K range.

Crude Oil Forecast: Oil’s track to 74 was halted by positive US GDP and declining inventories. What’s next for FOMC and NFP Week?

Crude Oil, EURUSD Forecast: Oil hovers at the upper edge of its consolidation, while EURUSD surges towards it.

If we look at data over the last couple of weeks, it is hard to argue that the US economy is not slowing. And that raised expectations for a weak NFP report with good merit. Still, it should be remembered that NFP change has a tendency to beat expectations, and the data suggests it has a strong directional bias for the USD on the day.

A softer-than-expected ISM services report was the gift that Fed doves have been waiting for ahead of tomorrow's NFP report. The USD index is now on track for a 3-week reversal pattern below resistance, and AUD/USD has broken out in style.

EUR/USD is rallying toward the key 1.0800 level that could set the tone for the rest of the month ahead of the NFP report.

It's possible we'll know who won the first round of France's election by the time markets open in Asia next week, which means the euro and European index futures could be more active than usual. Traders should then look to the pound and FTSE for pre-election jitters, although once again it could be Asian markets that get to witness the results. Despite the public holiday on Thursday, the US economic calendar is also packed. Two key ISM reports for manufacturing and services land before July 4th, alongside JOLTS and ADP employment reports, which are the warm-up acts for NFP on Friday.

Concerns over China and a hot labour market report in the US caused metals to fall sharply. However, the long-term gold forecast remains positive despite the recent struggles, even if prices were to weaken further in the short-term outlook.

The US dollar retraced for a third day, but with NFP stats favouring a 'beat' then we're on guard for a dollar bounce.

The US dollar is sitting in the middle of its 3-month range with leading indicators pointing toward slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth in the 200K-250K range.

Gold is overbought on a short-term basis, but the long-term returns hint at more room to run higher from here...

Friday's US non-farm payrolls report (NFP came in mixed-to-slightly weak when you consider the revisions and wages, causing the dollar to weaken further. The GB/USD could be heading to 1.30 in the week ahead when we have lots of data from both the UK and US to look forward to.

After slipping for the past three weeks, the US Dollar Index is testing key previous support at the 103.00 level, potentially setting the stage for a bounce on solid jobs data.

NFP trounces expectations at +353K vs. +185K expected. USD/JPY and bond yields jump, gold drops .Light macro events in week ahead.

The US dollar was lower across the board after traders digested the latest Fed meeting and are now focusing on four cuts this year, beginning in May. EUR/USD is just one of several pairs to form engulfing days against the US dollar.

The recent consolidation in the US Dollar Index and the Fed’s renewed data dependence could lead to a more-volatile-than-usual reaction in the US dollar.

Love it or loathe it, the rally on US indices has been impressive. Traders seem to be focussed on lower yields, slightly reduced bets of multiple Fed cuts and any other morsel of what can be repackaged as ‘good news’. But can it withstand incoming GDP figures, a PCE inflation report and an FOMC meeting without a wobble?