Forex Friday

There is one more macro even left that could provide even more volatility in the markets, namely the ISM services PMI on Monday. I reckon once the equity market volatility settles, the recent weakness in US data should translate into a more widespread dollar weakness. So, I maintain a bearish dollar forecast for the week ahead, especially now that we have seen a weaker jobs report today.

Our EUR/USD forecast remains bullish but in light of the dollar recovery and the mild risk-off sentiment, we wouldn’t rule out some further short-term weakness after rates fell back below the 1.09 handle following the ECB’s rate decision. The week ahead promises to be an important one for the FX markets, with the release of global PMIs, US GDP and the Fed’s favourite inflation measure.

Following a mixed US non-farm payrolls report, the US dollar fell, boosting metals and tech stocks like MSFT, AAPL, AMZN, and META to new highs. European indices dropped ahead of the French vote, limiting the euro's gains. The EUR/USD forecast may change based on the French vote outcome, while the upcoming US CPI release could influence the likelihood of a September rate cut.

The dollar has strengthened thanks to weakness in European PMI data released earlier today and ongoing concerns about the upcoming elections in France and the UK, both holding back the euro and pound. Meanwhile a surprise rate cut by the SNB hurt the franc on Thursday, which was followed by a marginally more dovish Bank of England rate decision than expected.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the euro and US dollar, and look ahead to the next week.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the US dollar, euro and Aussie, and look ahead to the next week.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the British pound, US dollar and look ahead to the next week.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday, a weekly report in which we highlight selected currency themes. In this week’s report, we will discuss the Japanese yen, US dollar and look ahead to the next week.

Friday's US non-farm payrolls report (NFP came in mixed-to-slightly weak when you consider the revisions and wages, causing the dollar to weaken further. The GB/USD could be heading to 1.30 in the week ahead when we have lots of data from both the UK and US to look forward to.

The US dollar remains fundamentally supported, especially against lower-yielding JPY, although it has not been doing so great lately against other major currencies thanks to the positive risk appetite, with US equity markets surging to record highs. The week ahead features the RBNZ rate decision, as well as US GDP and Core PCE among other highlights.

Dollar Index was testing a key support level as focus turns to PPI inflation after a hot CPI earlier this week. US dollar was hurt by weak retail sales on Thursday, but rising import costs is inflationary. The week ahead features global PMIs among a handful of other macro data releases.

Welcome to another edition of Forex Friday. In this week’s report, we will discuss the US dollar, upcoming data releases from the US next week, and why we think the EUR/USD is heading lower. In short, a sluggish Eurozone economy is holding back the euro, while hawkish Fed keeps US dollar underpinned ahead of CPI and retail sales and other data highlights next week.

NFP trounces expectations at +353K vs. +185K expected. USD/JPY and bond yields jump, gold drops .Light macro events in week ahead.

Thanks to the positive risk tone across financial markets, the US dollar has struggled to hold onto its gains made in response to mostly positive data showing a resilient economy. Yet, it hasn’t sold off either, with many traders expecting the FOMC and its Chairman Jerome Powell to push back against early rate cut bets next week. For this exact reason, gold has been unable to find any lasting support, with traders happy to take quick profits in either direction.

EUR/USD is holding above the 200-day average amid improved risk appetite with Nasdaq hitting a record high. The US dollar rally pauses ahead of UoM Consumer Sentiment survey, and next week’s key events that include include the ECB rate decision, global PMIs, US GDP and core PCE price index.

The big news so far today has been centred around geopolitical risks in the Middle East after military strikes by air and sea targeted 16 Houthi positions overnight. The news sent crude oil up 2.5% and gold found haven flows to climb more than 1% to above $2050. The US dollar was finding a bit of support on haven demand after failing to hold onto its gains the day before, despite a stronger-than-expected inflation report.

EUR/USD analysis: Boost from Eurozone PMI offset by drop in German retail sales, as focus turns to US non-farm payrolls report. EUR/USD technical analysis point to short-term weakness, although long-term bull trend still intact.