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VIX Spikes, Yen Surges, Yields Dive: Recession Fears Begin to Take Over
It’s been a busy and messy week across global macro markets. The push points behind the tumult are parsed through in this piece.
AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY: Bearish breakout risk grows on BOJ intervention threat
AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are sandwiched between range highs and uptrend support, meaning traders should be on alert for potential bearish and bullish breakout this week with big event risk in the United States and Europe approaching fast.
USD/JPY, Nikkei 225: BOJ scraps negative rates but not bond buys, pressuring yen
A historic day for Japanese markets with the Bank of Japan (BOJ) hiking interest rates for the first time since 2007, doing away with negative interest rates in the process. It’s now over to the Fed to drive the price action over the remainder of the week.
USD/JPY, AUD/JPY forecast: The yen strengthens on slightly hot CPI data
Japan's core CPI didn't fall below the BOJ's 2% target, although it did match it. Which has seen AUD/JPY and USD/JPY retrace further from their highs in light of yen strength.
USD/JPY, VIX, S&P 500, WTI, gold: Commitment of traders report (COT)
Open interest has fallen notably on USD/JPY since its failed ‘bid’ for spot prices to break and hold above 150. And that further suggests a glass ceiling for prices. Japanese yen futures also saw grow longs increase by 19.6%, although traders remained heavily net-short.
USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY: Pullbacks Ahead of the BoJ
It’s been a big week for global markets and it’s not over yet, with the Bank of Japan rate decision scheduled for later today.
Japanese Yen Analysis: USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, and GBP/JPY Bullish Outlooks Under Threat
With EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY testing critical support, price action over the next 30 hours will go a long way toward determining if the year-to-date trends extend or end from here...
USD/JPY Breakout Continues as EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY Stall
The USD/JPY breakout has continued even after an intervention threat, but both EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have shown stall in those bullish trends over the past month, raising questions of reversal potential.
USD/JPY: BOJ intervention risk escalates but will it actually work?
Japanese officials are threatening to intervene in FX markets again, prompted by the USD/JPY surging over 2% since the start of September.
USD/JPY: BOJ quest for sustained inflation has a long way to go
Japan’s export sector is benefitting from the weaker JPY but that’s not flowing through to the broader economy yet.
USD/JPY: BOJ FX intervention may be ineffectual
Another way to support the Japanese yen may be for the BOJ to stop intervening in markets.
Japanese Yen Technical Analysis: USD/JPY Slam Continues, Where's the Low?
USD/JPY has put in a massive move over the past week in what began as a resistance reaction, and then took on a life of its own as the US Dollar drove to fresh yearly lows.
Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY uptrend intact as bulls eye 138.00
USD/JPY remains in an uptrend after testing rising trend line support and the 50-day EMA midway through last week.
Yen outlook: The BOJ tease yen traders with policy shift
BOJ governor Ueda said that the central bank could cancel YCC and shrink their balance sheet, if their price targets are met in a 'sustainable, stable manner'.
Japanese Yen analysis: USD/JPY’s big bearish reversal ahead of the Fed
See why the Japanese yen could be the big beneficiary from a bout of risk aversion stemming from concerns about the US financial system.
Japanese yen analysis: USD/JPY breaks out despite bearish seasonality
USD/JPY's price action this week is providing a strong signal given the yen's usually bullish seasonal backdrop.
Fiat Money: What is a Fiat Currency?
A fiat currency is a monetary instrument backed by a national government like the British pound or Canadian dollar. Learn how fiat currencies operate and how they compare to other types of money.
European Open: Can Swiss inflation turn up the heat for SNB? (USD/JPY, CHF/JPY)
Swiss inflation kicks of economic data today, where a hot print could increase expectations of another 50bp hike from the SNB.
US CPI preview: Disinflation has begun, but will it be fast enough for the Fed?
The US CPI report is now THE single economic release with the largest expected market movement, so traders should absolutely have this release marked with the bullet on their calendars.
Consumer confidence recap: A rollercoaster of economic emotion
The January Consumer Confidence report is a reminder that the US economy is like a rollercoaster ride, full of ups and downs.
Japan’s PPI rips higher ahead of this week’s BOJ meeting and inflation report
Speculation that the BOJ will be forced to step away from their ultra-loose monetary policy has only intensified with producer prices reverting back to double digits.
What is the oldest currency in the world?
The British pound has been used as England’s central currency for over a thousand years. Read about its evolution from a coin literally weighing one pound to the banknotes common today. We also rank the next three oldest major currencies: the yen, ruble and dollar.
USD/JPY: Signs of Fed pivot or mere countertrend dip?
There’s only one problem with the Fed pivot narrative: Traders aren’t buying it (yet, at least)!