AUD JPY

You don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last?

Currently amid its worst 10-day run since the pandemic, AUD/JPY is on the ropes and desperately hoping the bell rings.

Australian unemployment may have risen, but so did all other key metrics including job growth and the participation rate. And that has likely provided a floor for AUD/USD and AUD/JPY over the near term.

A relatively hawkish meeting from the RBA has supported AUD over the past 24 hours, sent AUD/JPY to an 11-year high and made next week's inflation report the more important.

With unemployment spiking and broader measures of labour market slack increasing, the risk of strong wages growth sparking renewed inflationary pressures looks to have past.

AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are sandwiched between range highs and uptrend support, meaning traders should be on alert for potential bearish and bullish breakout this week with big event risk in the United States and Europe approaching fast.

AUD/JPY and the ASX 200 look set to diverge with the former strongly hinting at a swing low and the latter failing to hold above 7900 on Tuesday.

Almost by stealth, the unloved and under pressure Aussie and Kiwi are not far off hitting decade highs against the yen. With the near-term price action in AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY pointing to upside, and with momentum indicators sending the same message, the risk of a topside break appears to be growing.

There’s a growing risk the RBA may end up cutting interest rates sooner than US Federal Reserve with a slowdown in underlying inflationary pressures in the December quarter seeing markets shift forward expectation for a 25 basis point rate cut to early May.

With risk appetite back in full swing and market indicators on US recession risk providing a green light for the soft landing narrative, cyclicals such as Australia’s ASX 200 and AUD/JPY recovered last week, returning to the uptrend they’ve been in since the risk rival revival took hold in late October.

With markets starting to question how many rate cuts we’ll see from major central banks this year, sentiment towards China’s economic outlook deteriorating rapidly and riskier asset classes coming under pressures, Thursday shapes up as an important session for Australia’s ASX 200 and the AUD/JPY .

AUD/JPY offers decent risk-reward for traders considering longs or shorts right now, sitting on uptrend support with ample room to move in either direction depending on how the price interacts with this level in the near-term.

Whether it’s any major FX pair against the yen or the Nikkei 225, the last of least resistance right now seems to be higher with the BOJ maintaining its ultra-dovish stance.

Whilst the Asian session started off quietly enough, slowly but surely dark clouds have begun to form to provide an ominous feeling that something could crack. US futures are pointing lower, AUD/USD and the ASX 200 tapped fresh YTD lows and AUD/JPY – a classic barometer of risk - extended its losses for a second day to a 7-day low.

Geopolitics, inflation reports and sentiment towards Chinese markets will likely dominate proceedings for AUD/JPY and crude oil this week, putting their respective uptrends to the test during a time when investor risk appetite is particularly weak.

For ASX 200 and AUD/JPY, until the geopolitical situation in the Middle East improves, adopting a sell-on-rallies approach remains the most appropriate strategy for those and other cyclical asset classes.

Money markets are betting the Fed rate hike cycle is over with up to 100 basis points of cuts expected in 2024, boosting cyclical assets classes such as the ASX 200 and AUD/JPY.