News & analysis

Risk assets may be on the rise, but it is more due to a pause in risk off as opposed to buyers rushing back in. Still, it could still allow for some bullish wriggle room on AUD/USD and bitcoin if sentiment allows.

It’s been a tough period for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. But substantial moves in one direction rarely last long, especially when they occur quickly. With bulls successfully defending Monday’s lows despite significant selling pressure, and with price signals hinting we may have seen a near-term bottom, long setups may be worth pondering.

US interest rate expectations are becoming increasingly influential on Japan’s Nikkei 225, both through the FX channel impacting forecasts for exporter earnings and sentiment towards the outlook for global economic growth. Other factors, such as commentary from BOJ, come across as secondary factors for now.

After starting the day well in the green, the major US indices were coming under a bit of pressure again at the time of writing, with investors unable to shake off the recent turmoil impacting financial markets. For now, the Nasdaq 100 forecast remains mildly bearish after the recent breakdown. More evidence of a bottom is needed to excite the bulls again even if there is a sense of calmness observed in price action over the past two days or so.

The technical bias in USD/JPY will remain to the upside as long as it remains above the 146.00 level.

The absence of new bearish news and a light economic calendar have helped improve risk appetite somewhat. While not completely out of the woods, the market's realignment with fundamentals offers a more optimistic outlook. Stay tuned for further updates as the DAX tries to establish a base around its 200-day average.

GBPUSD Outlook: Following the pressures of a BOE rate cut along with the bullish rebound of the US Dollar index, the GBPUSD is up for a challenge to revive its uptrend.

We’re seeing signs of market stability after a volatile and bearish start to the week. Wall Street indices clawed back some of Monday’s losses. And that could see support for metals such as gold, silver and copper. At least over the near term.

Shinichi Uchida, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), says the bank won’t hike interest rates when markets are unstable, delivering a clear message on what traders need to do to prevent them doing so again: create volatility.