GBP/USD

GBPUSD Outlook: Following the pressures of a BOE rate cut along with the bullish rebound of the US Dollar index, the GBPUSD is up for a challenge to revive its uptrend.

While the BOJ hiked more aggressively than expected, they fell short on their ETF tapering, rattling the yen during a bout of 2-way volatility. And the risk of volatility remains with a looming FOMC meeting.

August has historically been the weakest month for GBP/USD and AUD/USD - see what other past tendencies we can glean about forex seasonality in the upcoming month!

Tech earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Meta and Amazon to set the early tone for UK markets this week before focus the switches to whether the Fed and Bank of England will cut interest rates. Early signals suggest traders want to buy risk.

The GBPUSD has dipped below the crucial 1.29 level ahead of this week's final wave of volatility surrounding US GDP and Core PCE data, and in anticipation of next week’s BOE and Fed monetary policy decisions. Will bearish pressures continue?

GBPUSD Forecast: The GBP/USD pair failed to sustain a close above the 1.3030 level. Current trends show bearish dominance, yet upcoming events next week will be crucial in determining whether the pair will continue its uptrend or face further declines.

EUR/USD looks to the ECB rate decision. GBP/USD eases after wage growth keeps August rate cut hopes alive.

At a high level, the US dollar has not shown a consistent trend of strengthening or weakening in one month before, one week after, one month after, or one quarter after US Presidential Election days over the last 10 elections.

GBP/USD has taken out the highs struck in June, pushing further above 1.2800 on Thursday. A test of the 2024 highs now looks to be on the cards. While there is UK data on the calendar, you get the sense it will be the US inflation report later in the session that will determine what happens next for Cable.

GBP/USD looks to Fed Powell & BoE speakers. Oil falls after China data & ahead of OPEC's monthly oil report.

EUR/USD holds above 1.08 amid French political uncertainty & ahead of Powell’s testimony. GBP/USD holds steady after last week's election & after a cautious BoE Haskel.

The upcoming release of US inflation data is likely to alter the odds of a September rate cut in the direction of the surprise, putting the GBP/USD forecast into focus. Thus, a clearer trend for the US dollar could emerge this week, after the greenback fell across the board last week.

In the absence of an unexpected reacceleration in US inflationary pressures or unlikely hawkish pivot from Jerome Powell, it’s questionable whether the US dollar can reverse the bearish move seen last week. GBP/USD is one pair that may be able to capitalise on dollar softness, putting a potential retest of the March highs into play.

The pound and FTSE are inching higher as the UK election results come in. Labour, as expected, won a landslide victory with 411 seats, marking gains of 210 seats at the time of writing. The outgoing Conservatives won just 119 seats, losing -248.

Labour has secured a thumping victory in the UK general election. GBP/USD is unmoved on the news, reflecting the result was priced in months ago. But the lack of volatility is also explained by its on the charts. It sits at an important level, making today’s June US nonfarm payrolls report a potential catalyst for a sizeable market move.

GBP/USD rises on General Election Day. EUR/USD rises to a 3-week high, ECB minutes are due.

DAX rises amid an improved market mood, Eurozone PMIs & PPI are due. GBP/USD rises after a dovish Powell & ahead of the UK General election.