Fed

Leading indicators point to a below expected reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 125K-175K range.

Bond traders are stepping back into the market on bets that the Fed will deliver a dovish hold today, which weighed on the US dollar and supported gold, silver and copper ahead of today’s FOMC meeting.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is testing the critical 104.50 level – today’s close will be key.

The Japanese yen is behaving like a classic risk-on-risk-off currency again, often moving in line with other risker asset classes. With interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and Federal Reserve (Fed), along with earnings from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon to navigate, it promises to be another volatile week for USD/JPY again.

The GBPUSD has dipped below the crucial 1.29 level ahead of this week's final wave of volatility surrounding US GDP and Core PCE data, and in anticipation of next week’s BOE and Fed monetary policy decisions. Will bearish pressures continue?

USDJPY Forecast: With the market fully pricing in a Fed rate cut starting in September, along with increasing speculations over a BOJ rate hike at the end of July, the USD/JPY is experiencing a sharp decline.

GBP/USD could pull back off 1-year highs at 1.3000 given the 17-year high in speculative long positioning, per the CFTC’s COT report.

GBPUSD Forecast: the GBPUSD’s uptrend is facing challenges this week. The US dollar, driven by political challenges and rate cut expectations, along with upcoming UK economic indicators, might add pressure on the pair. Is there a correction ahead?

The US dollar is testing support and the NFP leading indicators point to a slightly above expectation reading this month, with headline job growth potentially coming in somewhere in the 200-250K range

It was the Japanese yen which stole the show after Jerome Powell’s press conference, with USD/JPY falling over 450 pips on another suspected BOJ intervention.

The US dollar initially fell and indices rose as traders interpreted the Fed meeting and press conference as dovish.

US dollar traders will be watching Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference and any decisions about the central bank’s balance sheet runoff as potential market-movers for the US Dollar Index (DXY)

EUR/USD may have seen its bounce off 1.0600 support stall at 1.0740 – see the levels to watch moving forward!

GBP/USD remains in “sell rallies” mode, so bullish readers will want to be nimble against a broader backdrop that favors more downside from here.

The biggest economic data release of this week, and arguably the whole month – US CPI – didn’t disappoint in terms of its market impact.

The US dollar is sitting in the middle of its 3-month range with leading indicators pointing toward slightly above expectation reading in this month’s NFP report, with headline job growth in the 200K-250K range.

GBP/USD has bounced off key technical support at its rising trend line and 200-day MA in the mid-1.2500s, hinting at a potential retest of 1.2700 pending Friday’s NFP report...