Interest rates

A confirmed break below $2275 support in gold would project a “measured move” objective for the pattern down around $2100.

Why might the Fed cut rates in July? Inflation is running below the Fed’s target with timely measures of shelter inflation, jobless claims are ticking up, monetary policy is tight per the Taylor Rule, and the election is looming.

After slipping for the past three weeks, the US Dollar Index is testing key previous support at the 103.00 level, potentially setting the stage for a bounce on solid jobs data.

The start of a new Fed rate cut cycle doesn’t necessarily lead to the “obvious” bullish reaction in the S&P 500 and DJIA that the “don’t fight the Fed” mantra would have you believe... read on to see the actual data!

It appears clear that the next change to interest rates will be a rate cut, and the question now is when exactly the Fed’s easing cycle will begin.

Why the US dollar could benefit from fewer rate cuts than expected following a relatively quiet 2023...

USD/JPY is showing signs of rolling over, but remains in a longer-term uptrend ahead of the BOJ and Fed

FX volatility woke up in a big way in Q3 and with the US Dollar holding a strong bullish trend the door is open for more in Q4.

The S&P 500 is still holding this week’s breakout above key previous resistance in the 4325 area, keeping bullish hopes alive

Gold is poised for a potential breakout around the Fed meeting after spending the last 4 weeks consolidating in a tight $50 range.

USD/CAD is falling to test a key trend line after the BOC surprised markets with a 25bps interest rate increase

Powell appears to be threading the needle between leaving the door open for additional rate hikes while remaining responsive to the current banking stresses.

Markets have been rocked by the biggest banking crisis since the 2008 financial crash.

A 25-basis point rate hike was mostly priced in, especially in light of the latest inflation data that was released on Wednesday

We agree with the market’s expectation that Jerome Powell and company are likely to deliver a 25bps interest rate hike this month, though we certainly wouldn’t be shocked to see the central bank hold fire for now.

How did SVB collapse and what does it mean for financial markets?

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!