Precious Metals market

On Friday, we saw bond yields dip sharply post a disappointing US jobs report. Surprisingly, this did not bolster gold prices as expected. Despite climbing to a weekly high, gold then reversed and dropped.

This week promises to be a big one for the markets with lots of data, central bank meetings and company earnings to come. For gold, most of the attention will be on the FOMC rate announcement on Wednesday and the July jobs report on Friday.

In today's gold forecast, we're witnessing a small rebound not only in gold prices but also across various asset classes, including the major European stock averages while yesterday saw crude oil recovery strongly to close around 1% higher.

Later in the week, we will have the release of global PMIs, US GDP and the Fed’s favourite inflation measure – core PCE price index – all of which having the potential to impact the short-term gold forecast.

Gold's failure to hold above the previous record highs has raised some concern that the metal may have hit a peak. However, I am doubtful that is the case and expect the precious metal to bounce back, potentially reaching a new record soon. So, my gold forecast remains bullish as before despite the metal extending lower at the start of this week.

Our gold outlook remains positive. The metal’s performance has been bolstered by a weaker dollar and reduced bond yields. Its strong gains in 2024 have reinforced its status as a reliable asset for wealth preservation amidst rising prices.

Gold turned positive on the session after a quiet start, testing short-term resistance around $2420 at the time of writing.

Rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve are back driving the gold price, making it a relatively easy task of knowing what to focus on in the week ahead. The challenge is knowing how they may evolve given multiple rate cuts are already priced over the remainder of the year.

Gold has started the new week on the back foot after climbing more than 1% on Friday, to post a positive close on the week which ended a three-week losing streak.

Gold couldn’t hold onto its post-CPI gains on Wednesday after Powell was a little more hawkish than expected at the FOMC press conference last night. Traders have been a little cautious to buy the dip ahead of today’s key US data – namely, PPI inflation figures, due for release at 13:30 BST.

A multi-timeframe view of gold suggests $2600 could be its next upside target on its way to $3000 (just don't hold your breath). For now, gold and silver could find some support ahead of a key US inflation report and FOMC meeting.

Concerns over China and a hot labour market report in the US caused metals to fall sharply. However, the long-term gold forecast remains positive despite the recent struggles, even if prices were to weaken further in the short-term outlook.

Investors have so far resisted the temptations of picking up silver’s dip back below the $30 handle, following the metal’s big breakout in the last couple of months. However, the long-term silver outlook remains bullish, and I am expecting the short-term selling pressure to ease soon.

Gold and copper have made mild attempt to recoup last week's losses, which puts us on alert for a potential 'dead cat bounce'. Whilst silver’s rebound has been much more impressive, resistance looms.

More evidence is needed to confirm gold has peaked, for the latest pullback could just be driven by short-term profit-taking. My gold outlook remains bullish and expect an eventual rise to $2500.

Our gold and silver forecast remains positive and reckon new records could be on the way for the former and fresh 2024 gains for the latter, following last week's big silver rally. Precious metals have found additional support from a weaker US dollar.

Having taken out its 2021 high on Friday, silver has extended the bullish break on Monday, powering its way above $32 per ounce on the back of big gains in Chinese commodity futures. Given the speed of the rally, silver is fast approaching $35, a level it struggled to overcome in the early 2010s.