Yields
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The 2-year beckons USD higher ahead of PCE inflation, risk-off tone in Asia
If the 2-year yield is right, it suggests the USD could be set to rise over the near term. And I suspect that PCE inflation could be the trigger. For now, risk off tones are in the air.
US dollar ‘bull’ dog unleashed, AUD/USD crushed on eve of Fed: Asian Open
A surprise rise in US wage pressures weighed on sentiment on the eve of the Fed meeting, sending the US dollar broadly higher, Wall Street lower as AUD/USD suffered its second worst day of the year.
US dollar, yields look set to close the gap with commodities
Momentum turned higher for the US dollar on Friday and the US 2-year is reconsidering a break above 2%, which could see them close the gap with the CRM commodities index - which have led both markets higher this year.
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US dollar correction kicks in, AUD/USD firm ahead of CPI: Asian Open
The US 2-year bond yield remains support, which is capping the yield at 5% and weighed on the US dollar. And that helped AUD/USD rise for a second day ahead of a key AU CPI report.
GBP/USD, EUR/USD forecast: Here’s why the US dollar rally has stalled
The US dollar rally has stalled, and the longer is fails to extends its gains the greater the odds of a pullback. For today, flash PMIs have placed GBP/USD and EUR/USD into focus.
EUR/USD, Gold, Crude Oil, 2-year note analysis: COT report
EUR/USD futures traders are on the cusp of flipping to net-short exposure, and managed funds are increasing their short exposure to gold and crude oil.
US dollar taps 106 as US 2yr eyes break of 5%, gold rangebound: Asian Open
The US dollar index recouped some of Wednesday's losses and is now tapping 106, whilst the US 2-year yields considers a break above 5%.
US dollar ponders correction as bond prices approach support
The US dollar has risen around 6% from the late December low. And with bond prices approaching support which could send yields lower, the US dollar rally could at least find some headwinds - if not a retracement.
USD forecast: Positioning hints at headwinds for USD, 2-year yield
Short bets against the US 2-year yield continue to diminish yet remain at a sentiment extreme. And as the yield flatlined above 5% in 2023 despite aggressive short positioning, it suggests its yield may struggle to retake 5% this time around. And that could prove to be a headwind for the USD.
USD/JPY forms bull flag above 150, Nasdaq ‘rebound’ tied to yields
The Nasdaq may have risen on Wednesday, but it appears driven by a pullback in yields. And if yields rally from a key level of support, it could propel USD/JPY higher and weigh on the Nasdaq.
Can bondcano stay on the backburner? The Week Ahead
Bondcano, the phrase coined to described the sharp acceleration of bond yields to the detriment of equities, appears to be smouldering as yields have pulled back from their highs. It has certainly provided some relief for sentiment, given the well-based concerns that something was about to break in the financial system. But with the Fed members now striking a relatively dovish tone, it raises the question as to whether bond investors will now step back into the market to capitalise on attractive yields and take the sting out of bondcano’s tail.
EUR/USD tries to snap its record losing streak: The Week Ahead – 06/10/2023
EUR/USD is on track for a record 12th consecutive losing streak. But given its hesitancy to test 1.04 and the potential for a false break of the January low, perhaps we’re finally nearing an inflection point for the battered EUR/USD.
S&P 500, Nikkei 225 analysis: Can someone let the dead cat bounce out?
US bond yields pulled back to give risk assets a reprieve from their selloff on Wednesday. But with bond market implied volatility also pulling back, perhaps there's a little more room for a bounce for the Nikkei and S&P 500.
Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100: Indices remain in the hands of bond yields
The bond rout and sharp rise in yields continue to take centre stage for sentiment. And the longer this trend persists, the greater the odds appear for indices to finally roll over. Given three key US indices are showing signs of stability around their respective support levels, it brings the potential for a minor bounce over the near-term. But if bond yields keep rising, any such bounce could prove futile for bulls.
WTI crude oil headed for $90? Yields perk up: European open – 5/9/2023
The US yield curve has continued to creep higher after the 3-day weekend in the US, heling the US dollar retain its place at the top spot among currency majors. Yet WTI crude oil is managing to outpace the dollar, and looks set for at least another attempt to test the $90 level.
USD, GBP/USD analysis: Commitment of traders report (COT) – 04/09/2023
It is also worth noting that the 2-year yield printed a bearish engulfing week after a failed attempt to break and hold above 5%. And if yields continue to move lower over the coming weeks, it will likely weigh on the US dollar. Large speculators are slowly loosening their bullish grip on GBP/USD futures, with short exposure rising by 25% last week. Traders are also showing renewed bullish interest in gold and silver.
Stocks off lows after dollar, yields collapsed
When bond markets move, investors in other markets always take notice
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US Housing Market continues to show signs of weakness; USD/JPY
Watching US 10-Year Yields and USD/JPY could give a clue as to the next direction for mortgage rates.
US data dump points to hawkish sentiment from Fed
Costs associated with producers will make their way to the end of the supply chain over the next few months and eventually be reflected in the CPI.
US Mortgage Rates fall for the first time in 11 weeks!
When will the housing market turn up again? This will most likely be after mortgage rates move lower.
Is the Fed about to slow the pace of tightening?
Will today’s “leak” to the WSJ be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding the US Dollar and US rates?
Is the Fed about to slow the pace of tightening?
Will today’s “leak” to the WSJ be the straw that breaks the camels back regarding the US Dollar and US rates?
Gold eyes fresh breakdown as China fears add fuel to fire
It was always going to be an uphill struggle for the metal...